According to @Matt_Hougan, Bitcoin’s spot price is being set by marginal buyers from new professional investors, making shifts in net institutional demand the key driver. Source: Matt Hougan, X post dated Jan 13, 2026. He highlighted Bradley Duke’s question that recent BTC weakness blamed on deteriorating liquidity and long-term holder selling may instead reflect a fall in net institutional demand, implying prices would improve if that demand returns (presented as his hypothesis). Source: Bradley Duke, X post dated Jan 13, 2026; Matt Hougan, X post dated Jan 13, 2026. For trading, prioritize tracking U.S. spot BTC ETF creations and redemptions as a direct proxy for institutional net demand. Source: ETF issuers including iShares by BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK 21Shares daily flow reports; listing exchanges Cboe and Nasdaq public notices. Cross-check institutional positioning via CME Bitcoin futures open interest and the spot to futures basis to gauge leverage and demand intensity. Source: CME Group Bitcoin futures contract data and market statistics. Validate flow direction with net transfers on institutional venues such as Coinbase Institutional and LMAX Digital, and with large on-chain exchange flows from analytics providers. Source: Coinbase Institutional updates, LMAX Digital market data, and on-chain data providers such as Glassnode. A sustained pickup across these proxies would corroborate returning institutional demand, while deterioration would confirm the current thesis of weaker marginal buying. Source: Synthesis of the above sources and the institutional-demand thesis highlighted by Matt Hougan and Bradley Duke on X, Jan 13, 2026.

According to the source, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci is said to maintain a $150,000 year-end 2025 price target for Bitcoin (BTC), which could not be independently confirmed on SkyBridge Capital’s official newsroom or Scaramucci’s verified X account at the time of writing (source: SkyBridge Capital; source: Anthony Scaramucci on X). Traders should treat the headline as unverified until a primary statement appears on SkyBridge channels or Scaramucci’s account to avoid headline-driven whipsaws (source: SkyBridge Capital; source: Anthony Scaramucci on X). If confirmation emerges, monitor spot BTC ETF net flows and CME Bitcoin futures open interest for follow-through in risk appetite and liquidity (source: Farside Investors; source: CME Group). Key tactical gauges include the BTC 50-day and 200-day moving averages and options skew/volatility on Deribit to assess positioning and topside demand (source: TradingView; source: Deribit). Until verified, keep risk tight and track funding rates and basis on major derivatives venues for signs of crowded longs or headline fade risk (source: Binance Futures; source: OKX).